As Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad clings to power with the quiet backing of regional powers Iran and Russia, the Middle East may be sliding slowly into war. Squeezed between the rebellions of a bloody Arab Spring and growing fears of a possible military response to Iran’s growing nuclear threat, the region is becoming increasingly unstable.“I would be very surprised if it turned into a Russian-American war, but this could be a Mid-East war: Hezbollah, Hamas, Iran, Syria, Israel all having at each other,” said Jack Granatstein, military historian and senior research fellow at the Canadian Defence and Foreign Affairs Institute.
Ramazan Gözen, an international relations expert at Abant İzzet Baysal University wrote this week in the Turkish newspaper Zaman, “A process of steadily sharpening polarization is being experienced … [and] it does not bode well…. In short, the polarization over Syria and Iran can turn into an uncontrollable conflict between the polarized countries and their supporters.”
Russia and the United States are bracing for a naval confrontation, unprecedented since the Cold War, in the eastern Mediterranean, just off the coast of Syria.
Iran, worried over a possible pre-emptive strike against its nuclear facilities, has threatened to attack NATO’s new missile defence shield in Turkey if it is attacked by either Israel or the United States. It has also said it will soon stage a navy drill to practise closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40% of the world’s oil travels.
But it is Russia, Syria’s main arms supplier and old Cold War ally, that has raised the stakes of any possible military confrontation. Along with China, the Russians have repeatedly blocked UN Security Council action against Syria and sought to protect Mr. Assad’s regime from the type of UN resolution that allowed NATO troops to intervene in Libya and help depose dictator Muammar Gaddafi. The arrival of the Russian navy off the coast of Syria may also be intended to reassure Iran of Moscow’s continued interest, just as it fears a possible attack by Israel or the United States.
“The fight in Syria today is two contests in one,” said Michael Doran of Washington’s Brookings Institute. “It is a struggle between Syrians over the nature of their government and society, but it is also a regional rivalry between Iran and its adversaries.
